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Mensagem |
Philipius
Veterano |
# mar/06
Olá, pessoal.
Dêem uma lida nesse artigo da revista The Economist sobre o Brasil, que também inclui uma pequena entrevista que a revista fez ao Presidente Lula.
Leiam o artigo todo antes de o taxarem como defensor "disso" ou "daquilo".
Ele dá uma visão geral interessante sobre aspectos políticos e econômicos do país, e não analisa a situação como fazem nossos compatriotas, cuspindo valores e crenças.
É uma análise mais sensata, pode ser lida por pessoas "normais" (não é uma análise neutra, isso não existe).
Enfim, fiquem com o texto.
Abraços.
http://www.economist.com/world/la/displaystory.cfm?story_id=5578770
Lula's leap
Mar 2nd 2006 | BRASÍLIA
From The Economist print edition
The Economist talks to Brazil's president
AFP
THE press says he's shed 14 kilos (30lb). His aides confirm more than ten. But there is no doubt about the improvement in the political fitness of Brazil's president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Last year, Brazil's worst scandal in a dozen years nearly finished him. The polls now predict his victory over likely rivals in next October's presidential elections. Lula does not admit to being a candidate: he may wait until June to declare himself, while his main rivals must leave their current jobs by next month. Yet his frenetic trips around the country inaugurating crowd-pleasing public works make his intentions plain.
Why is he now likely to win? Speaking to The Economist in a rare interview, Lula cited over and over what he regards as his twin triumphs: economic stability plus social progress. “How many countries have achieved what we have: fiscal responsibility and a strong social policy at the same time?” he asks. “Never in the economic history of Brazil have we had the solid fundamentals we have now.” Brazil is ready for “a leap in quality”, he says.
Such a leap is what Brazil—a country with a population (186m) equal to that of the whole of the rest of South America and a land area bigger than all 25 EU countries combined—has been waiting for since the early 1970s, when it was one of the world's fastest growing economies. Then its economy stumbled into debt and inflation, while other emerging economies like China and India began to take off, generating more global buzz. In his interview at the presidential ranch, Granja do Torto, Lula defended a slow and steady approach to growth and promised further reform in a possible second term. “The future”, he says, “will be built on strong investment in education and training, with tax relief to encourage new investment, notably in science and technology.” Since becoming president in January 2003, he has achieved much of what he set out to do, but has not yet cleared all obstacles to Brazil's great leap forward.
Popular, but no populist
Solid fundamentals are not what the world expected from Lula. His pre-presidential career consisted mainly of leading a trade union that defied Brazil's military dictators, and a political movement, the Workers' Party (PT), that denounced the “neo-liberal” policies of the dictators' democratically elected successors. The victory of a worker born dirt-poor in Brazil's poverty-stricken north-east was celebrated as a victory for poor people everywhere. Yet Lula did not turn out to be a populist like Venezuela's Hugo Chávez. Instead of spending recklessly, reigniting inflation and perhaps defaulting on debt as Argentina has done, Lula clamped down on inflation and saved extra money to pay the debt. “I will not throw away the opportunity the people gave me,” he says.
Lula sees himself as a negotiator, not an ideologue. He has befriended both Mr Chávez and the Venezuelan leader's American antagonist, George Bush. On a state visit to Britain next week, he will try to prod the Doha round of global trade negotiations into life.
For a leader adept at reconciling opposites, Lula has proved a surprisingly polarising figure. Disappointed with his orthodox economics, the left wing of the PT has harried the government with “friendly fire”, deterring Lula from reforming as boldly as he might have done. Yet, for his foes, Lula remains the party's creature. He allowed the PT to replace experts from the government bureaucracy with loyalists and to abort programmes that had proved their worth. Then came the mensalão, revelations that the PT had been funnelling money illegally to both its own congressmen and those from allied parties. Millions had voted for the party because it proclaimed itself above the grubby norm of Brazilian politics. That image is now in tatters. Lula is popular among the poor, say the polls, but has lost ground among Brazilians from the middle class up.
That the mass of Brazilians seems prepared to overlook these misdeeds suggests that Lula got two big things right: the economy and poverty alleviation. Comparing Brazil's vital indicators when Lula took over with the same ones now “is like looking at two different economies”, says Vinod Thomas, former head of the World Bank in Brazil. In the autumn of 2002, Brazil's currency, the real, plunged, largely because the markets feared Lula's arrival. Inflation, already in double digits, threatened to spike higher and the yield on Brazil's dollar bonds was 25 percentage points above that of American Treasuries. The new government swerved away from disaster. The finance minister, Antonio Palocci, raised the target for the public sector's primary surplus (before interest payments) by half a percentage point to 4.25% of GDP, persuading the markets that Lula could be trusted to pay Brazil's public debt. The central bank steadied the real and raised interest rates to choke inflation.
An economy that swooned every time confidence in emerging markets wobbled now looks steadierAn economy that swooned every time confidence in emerging markets wobbled now looks steadier. Spurred by a devaluation in 1999 and buoyant demand for commodities, exports have boomed, turning a current-account deficit into surplus. Mr Palocci has used the inflow of dollars to pay off foreign creditors, including the IMF. Soon, Brazil will no longer have to worry about a falling real driving up its debt burden. The risk premium has fallen to a record low of two percentage points.
Much of the grumbling is about the price Brazil has paid for stability. Under Lula, economic growth has averaged just 2.6% a year, barely better than the dismal average of the last 15 years. There are at least three culprits. At around 11%, Brazilian real interest rates are among the highest in the world. Government grabs an estimated 38% of GDP in the form of taxes and contributions, well above the tax take of most other Latin American economies. Even with all that revenue, central government investment has shrunk to a derisory 0.5% of GDP.
Barely a day has passed since Lula came to office without shrill denunciations of the central bank, often from his own vice-president, José Alencar. Tight monetary policy has stifled investment and pushed the real to levels that threaten exports and scare local producers. But Lula insists that “you can't make the central bank the villain”, not least because the government sets the inflation target. The government is doing its part, for example by reducing import tariffs “on products that we know are increasing in price more than they should”, such as steel, he says.
Steady as she goes
Turning to Brazil's crushing tax burden, Lula points out that the government has not raised a single tax rate yet. Revenue is up because profits are higher and tax collection is better. As this improves, “we'll be able to reduce the tax burden by cutting rates and expanding the base of contributors”. For Lula, sure growth is worth more than fast growth. “I don't want to grow 10% or 15% a year. I want a lasting cycle of growth averaging 4% or 5%.” There will be “no magic in the economy”, he says. This year growth should be around 3.5%.
Reuters
Survival, but no exit from povertyBut stability has its own subtle magic. It protects the value of salaries and encourages business to plan long term. “The capital market is now an option” for financing infrastructure, says Paulo Godoy, president of the ABDIB, a group representing infrastructure firms. Despite high interest rates, consumer credit surged after the government let banks lend to consumers against their paycheques. This contributed to what will no doubt be the PT's favourite campaign statistic: 3.5m jobs created in the formal sector between 2003 and 2005.
This points to a second achievement: a reduction in poverty and inequality—the blight that Lula was elected to combat. A poverty index tracked by the Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV), a business school, fell from 27.3% of the population in 2003 to 25.1% in 2004. Strong economic growth in 2004 helped. More important, says Marcelo Neri of FGV, was a sharp drop in inequality, which is “now at its lowest level in the past 30 years, and still falling.”
The reasons for this are complicated and only partly down to Lula. His predecessor, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, universalised primary education, which accounts for much of the reduction in inequality. He also tweaked Brazil's job-killing labour law, encouraging formal employment. Declining informality and inequality are “new elements on the Brazilian scene which analysts don't fully understand,” says Mr Neri.
After a stumble, Lula has helped. Upon taking office, he unveiled an anti-poverty programme called Fome Zero (zero hunger), which was clearly unworkable. Lula retreated, replacing it with Bolsa Família (family fund). This consolidated five pre-Lula programmes that transferred cash to poor families, raised the benefit and expanded the number of beneficiaries so far to 8.7m families, roughly a fifth of Brazil's population. This makes it “the most important income transfer programme in the world”, says Lula. In the poor north-east,
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FBassist
Veterano |
# mar/06
· votar
2 razoes para eu nao ler
1 - mto texto
2 - ta em ingles!
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cadastro1
Veterano |
# mar/06
· votar
2 razoes para eu nao ler
1 - mto texto
2 - ta em ingles!
(2)
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Philipius
Veterano |
# mar/06
· votar
FBassist
mina grunge cobain
2 características que destacam as pessoas no Mercado de Trabalho:
1 - Busca pelo conhecimento.
2 - Proeficiência em línguas estrangeiras.
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FBassist
Veterano |
# mar/06
· votar
Philipius
;**
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snowwhite
Veterano |
# mar/06
· votar
2 razoes para eu nao ler
1 - mto texto
2- Nada do que digam sobre o Lula me interessa. Já sei tudo o que precisava saber.
Sorry.
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Philipius
Veterano |
# mar/06
· votar
FBassist
=D
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Philipius
Veterano |
# mar/06
· votar
snowwhite
2- Nada do que digam sobre o Lula me interessa. Já sei tudo o que precisava saber.
Deveria ler, o autor usa bons argumentos nas críticas que faz ao governo.
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cadastro1
Veterano |
# mar/06
· votar
Philipius
:****
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snowwhite
Veterano |
# mar/06
· votar
Philipius
Deveria ler, o autor usa bons argumentos nas críticas que faz ao governo.
Desculpa... Já li demais a respeito do governo Lula. Estou a fim de coisas novas na vida.
:********
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Brunorocker
Veterano |
# mar/06
· votar
the left wing of the PT has harried the government with “friendly fire”,
não concordo com isso...
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Philipius
Veterano |
# mar/06
· votar
Brunorocker
não concordo com isso...
Você afirma que a ala mais à esquerda do PT não atacou o governo?
Conte quais as bases dessa afirmação.
Vamos discutir!
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Brunorocker
Veterano |
# mar/06
· votar
Philipius
eu diria q eles foram excluidos pelo proprio partido, e assim fizeram outro, no caso o PSOL...accho q é isso..
mas eu vou ter que me arrumar pra ir a faculdade agora! depois das 11:30 (12:30 do horario de brasilia) a gente discute!
té mais!
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Pseudonimum
Veterano |
# mar/06
· votar
Eu tô pegando uns textos desse site ultimamente. É bem interessante.
Pra quem quer ficar realmente por dentro, é bom ler os artigos do TheEconomist e da CNN. Porque ficar dependendo da Globo é foda...
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snowwhite
Veterano |
# mar/06
· votar
Pseudonimum
Porque ficar dependendo da Globo é foda...
E do Sbtolice e da Bandiota.
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Pati Cobain
Veterano |
# mar/06 · Editado por: Pati Cobain
· votar
Bem q eu queria ler, mas...
2 razoes para eu nao ler
1 - mto texto
2 - ta em ingles! (3)
¬¬
se bem q texto grande, nem eh o motivo principal, mas eh um dos hehe
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snowwhite
Veterano |
# mar/06
· votar
Daqui a pouco talvez eu acabe por ler o texto na íntegra...O_o
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Pseudonimum
Veterano |
# mar/06
· votar
snowwhite
É, realmente, aí fica difícil.
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snowwhite
Veterano |
# mar/06
· votar
Pseudonimum
É, realmente, aí fica difícil.
Não é uma tristeza se sentir assim no país em que a gente nasce?
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Pseudonimum
Veterano |
# mar/06
· votar
snowwhite
Como dizem, a esperança é a última que morre.
O negócio é correr atrás mesmo, em nenhum país se tem tudo fácil.
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snowwhite
Veterano |
# mar/06
· votar
Pseudonimum
A Esperança é a última que Corre!!!
HAUHUHAUHAUH
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Jaum_Paulo
Veterano |
# mar/06
· votar
caramba, eu achava que sabia um pouco de ingles, agora vi que não sei nada, tive que pegar o dicionário aqui...
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snowwhite
Veterano |
# mar/06
· votar
Jaum_Paulo
caramba, eu achava que sabia um pouco de ingles, agora vi que não sei nada, tive que pegar o dicionário aqui...
É..hauhuah.... levei uma surra e não consegui!
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Pseudonimum
Veterano |
# mar/06
· votar
caramba, eu achava que sabia um pouco de ingles, agora vi que não sei nada, tive que pegar o dicionário aqui...
É porque é um site de economia, tem termos mais técnicos e tal.
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snowwhite
Veterano |
# mar/06
· votar
Pseudonimum
É porque é um site de economia, tem termos mais técnicos e tal.
É isso mesmo. Mas meu inglês tá tosco mesmo.
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Pseudonimum
Veterano |
# mar/06
· votar
snowwhite
Huahuah, é bom pegar esses textos de vez em quando pra dar uma treinada e tal.
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snowwhite
Veterano |
# mar/06
· votar
Pseudonimum
Huahuah, é bom pegar esses textos de vez em quando pra dar uma treinada e tal.
Oh..tavam falando sobre o texto acima no Jornal da Band!
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Pseudonimum
Veterano |
# mar/06
· votar
snowwhite
Mas esse texto é de ontem. Povo atrasado ahuahauah
Teve uma notícia que eu vi no jornal (de TV mesmo) da CNN, que só depois de uns 5 dias mostrou nos nossos canais abertos.
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snowwhite
Veterano |
# mar/06
· votar
Pseudonimum
Mas esse texto é de ontem. Povo atrasado ahuahauah
hauhuauah...E isso em tempos de internet, hein?
Teve uma notícia que eu vi no jornal (de TV mesmo) da CNN, que só depois de uns 5 dias mostrou nos nossos canais abertos.
Isso é pra forçar assinatura e prá manter o povo mal informado.
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ZakkWyldeEMG
Veterano |
# mar/06
· votar
interessante, dei uma lida por cima
depois vou ler com mais calma
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